New Information Corona Virus May Incubate 24 Days

The new study indicates that There are still many things that are still unknown about the initials virus 2019-nCoV.

More than a month since the coronary virus was confirmed in Wuhan, Hubei province, central China. And spread in at least 25 countries, with more than 900 deaths, infected more than 40,000 results. The study came out periodically. In conclusion, there are still many things that are not known. About the initials virus 2019-nCoV.

The result is negative 3 times before confirming the infection.

Chinaday, reported yesterday (10 February) in a case in Beijing that the virus genetic test results in a swooping sample. The results were negative 3 times before the infection was confirmed through sampling from the lower respiratory tubes. This case increases the anxiety that the patient is infected with the virus. May escape screening and spread further

Kua San Cheng, Head of Critical Care and Respiratory Care People’s Hospital Peking University says there are many factors that can affect the accuracy of the nucleotide (NAT (nucleic acid testing), such as the severity of symptoms. Developmental illness Methods of sampling and environment in the laboratory Nucleotide tests for other genetically engineered viruses also do not give 100 percent accurate results. But the examination with this method is still a way to confirm that there is no substitute

Wang Chen, a respiratory disease specialist And the president of the Medical Sciences Association told CCTV last week that Even the ability to check Better and better But may have many cases of infection That shows negative results

There are cases that the virus incubates for 24 days.

The study, conducted by a team of more than 30 researchers, led by Dr. Zhong Nansan, an epidemiologist who discovered the coronary artery virus SARS 17 years ago, citing data from more than 1,099 patients in China. In some cases It may take up to 24 days longer than you think of 10 days, while the current quarantine is 14 days, based on the Merser’s incubation period.

(The results of this study are published on the online medical data collection website. That has not been published yet, or peer review, the expert review on ‘Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China’)

See a doctor for the first time Less than half a fever

From the same study, it was found that only 43% of the infected patients initially had fever, but later reached 87.9%.

Infection found in 2019-nCOV without fever, more common than SARS And MERS infected, meaning that patients in this section may fall out of the definition of fever screening criteria

The same sample in this study, from 552 hospitals in 31 counties, between 1-29 Jan, only 1.18% experienced direct contact with wildlife. That is expected to be the source of the disease But nearly one in three people have been to Wuhan and 71.8% have contacted someone from Wuhan. Epidemic center Emphasizing the spread of human-to-human transmission The results of the study were consistent with the reports of infection from relatives and asymptomatic transmission.


The study does not exclude the possibility that there may be “super-spreaders”, a small group of people that can spread more than most people.

When the SARS epidemic occurred in 2003, one doctor who treated the SARS patient in Guangdong Infected with 16 people when traveling to attend weddings, relatives in Hong Kong When those guests travel to another country SARS spread throughout the world.

Transmission through this channel may also contribute to the new strain of the corona virus as well.

Another report released this week The researchers speculate that Corona virus outbreak Should reach the peak in the next few weeks And at that point Cumulative infection in Wuhan Should be at least 500,000 people

Scientists at the Faculty of Tropical and Hygiene Medicine, London School, a research center in Camden, England, uses mathematical models to analyze epidemics in Wuhan. Led to the assessment that the corona virus May reach the limit to the end of February.

There is still uncertainty about the time and the peak of the epidemic. But when evaluated from the assumption that the new virus There is a standard incubation period of 5.2 days and the population of Wuhan is around 10 million people. The virus is likely to spread in the population of about 5% of the population of Wuhan, or 1 in every 20 people in the city, so beating that number to around 500,000 people.

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